Thursday, October 31, 2013

The Italian Gold Panic


                                     
                                      

     I was exploring data on various countries, and came across the chart above. Currently, Italy has a 127% debt to GDP ratio. I imagine that within a few years not only will it replay its flirt with bankruptcy like it did before, but it will make Greece look like a drop in the bucket. But that is besides the point. The next chart is what made me interested.


Rank Country/Organization Gold
(tonnes)
Gold's share
of national
forex reserves (%)
- G6 (EU) 8,972.6 76%
1  United States 8,133.5 70%
2  Germany 3,390.6 66%
3 International Monetary Fund logo.svg International Monetary Fund 2,814.0 N.A.
4  Italy 2,451.8 65%
5  France 2,435.4 65%
6  China 1,054.1 1%
7   Switzerland 1,040.1 8%
8  Russia 1,015.4[11]
9  Japan 765.2 2%
10  Netherlands 612.5 52%
11  India 557.7 7%
12 Logo European Central Bank.svg European Central Bank 502.1 27%
13  Turkey 487.3[12] 16.2%
14  Taiwan 423.6 4%
15  Portugal 382.5 84.0%
16  Venezuela 365.8 66.0%
17  Saudi Arabia 322.9 2%
18  United Kingdom 310.3 12%
19  Lebanon 286.8 22%
20  Spain 281.6 23%
21  Austria 280.0 48%
22  Belgium 227.4 33%
23  Philippines 192.7 9%
24  Algeria 173.6 3%
25  Thailand 152.4 3%
26  Kazakhstan 130.9 19%
27  Singapore 127.4 2%
28  Sweden 125.7 7%
29  South Africa 125.1 10%
30  Mexico 124.9 3%
31  Libya 116.6 4%
32 BIS-logo.PNG Bank for International Settlements 115.0 N.A.
33  Greece 112.0 76%
34  South Korea 104.4 1%
35  Romania 103.7 9%
36  Poland 102.9 4%
37  Australia 79.9 6%
38  Kuwait 79.0 9%
39  Indonesia 75.9 3%
40  Egypt 75.6 21%
41 Brazil Federative Republic of Brazil 67.0 1.0%
42 Denmark Kingdom of Denmark 66.5 3.5%
43 Pakistan Islamic Republic of Pakistan 64.4 27.4%
44 Argentina Argentine Republic 61.7 7.2%
45 Belarus Republic of Belarus 49.4 24.5%
46 Finland Republic of Finland 49.1 21.3%
47 Bolivia Plurinational State of Bolivia 42.3 13.6%
48 Bulgaria Republic of Bulgaria 40.0 9.3%
49 West African Economic and Monetary Union 36.5 12.0%
50 Malaysia Malaysia 36.4 1.2%
51 Ukraine Ukraine 36.4 6.7%
52 Peru Republic of Peru 34.7 2.3%
53 Slovakia Slovakia 31.8 64.7%
54 Nepal Nepal 30.1 22.9%
55 Iraq Republic of Iraq 29.8 2.0%
56 Ecuador Republic of Ecuador 26.3 28.1%
57 Syria Syrian Arab Republic 25.8 6.5%
58 Morocco Kingdom of Morocco 22.0 5.7%
59 Afghanistan Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 21.9 13.8%
60 Nigeria Federal Republic of Nigeria 21.4 2.0%
61 Sri Lanka Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka 16.6 11.2%
62 Serbia Republic of Serbia 16.6 4.8%
63 Jordan Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 14.2 5.5%
64 Cyprus Republic of Cyprus 13.9 65.8%
65 Bangladesh People's Republic of Bangladesh 13.5 4.2%
66 Cambodia Kingdom of Cambodia 12.4 11.1%
67 Qatar State of Qatar 12.4 1.4%
68 Czech Republic Czech Republic 11.0 1.1%
69 Colombia Republic of Colombia 10.4 1.2%
70 Laos Lao People's Democratic Republic 8.9 34.4%
71 Ghana Republic of Ghana 8.7 7.1%
72 Paraguay Republic of Paraguay 8.7 6.2%
73 Latvia Republic of Latvia 7.7 4.6%
74 Myanmar Republic of the Union of Myanmar 7.3 4.4%
75 El Salvador Republic of El Salvador 7.3 10.6%
76 Guatemala Republic of Guatemala 6.9 4.3%
77 Republic of Macedonia Republic of Macedonia 6.8 11.1%
78 Tunisia Tunisian Republic 6.7 4.4%
79 Tajikistan Republic of Tajikistan 6.4 51.1%
80 Azerbaijan Republic of Azerbaijan 6.0 2.0%
81 Republic of Ireland Ireland 6.0 16.6%
82 Lithuania Republic of Lithuania 5.8 3.5%
83 Mongolia Mongolia 5.8 7.4%
84 Bahrain Kingdom of Bahrain 4.7 3.7%
85 Brunei Nation of Brunei, the Abode of Peace 4.0 4.9%
86 Mauritius Republic of Mauritius 3.9 5.2%
87 Mozambique Republic of Mozambique 3.7 6.6%
88 Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyz Republic 3.3 7.1%
89 Canada Canada 3.2 0.2%
90 Slovenia Republic of Slovenia 3.2 18.5%
91 Aruba Aruba 3.1 18.5%
92 Hungary Hungary 3.1 0.3%
93 Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.0 3.1%
94 Luxembourg Grand Duchy of Luxembourg 2.2 10.7%
95 Hong Kong Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 2.1 0.0%
96 Iceland Republic of Iceland 2.0 2.2%
97 Papua New Guinea Independent State of Papua New Guinea 2.0 2.3%
98 Trinidad and Tobago Republic of Trinidad and Tobago 1.9 0.9%
99 Albania Republic of Albania 1.6 2.8%
100 Yemen Republic of Yemen 1.6 1.2%

Sum

     As you can see, Italy has the 4th largest gold reserves in the world. Perhaps they would sell that gold during a financial panic in order to buy up assets, thus putting pressure on gold. Is it likely? No. But if it means inflating to save financial institutions and/or the government, selling gold seems like the sane option, since not only is the Euro not the worlds reserve currency, but it would wreck inflation not only on Italy, but all of Europe.