Was/Is Jim Rogers Right About Commodities?

In 2004 Jim Rogers wrote a book about investing in commodities called Hot Commodities. As I read it, it seemed pretty right on what has happened so far. According to him, we are in for a bull market in commodities until the 201Xs. Many of his calls were great, like gold and oil. Let's see how they stack up:

So far so good.



Now what about other commodities like led he recommended?

Although it was down from it's high, it still has grown since his call on it. What are some others that I personally would invest in? I personally like soft commodities, since precious metals and oil tend to be overbought, and are overvalued (although silver looks like an interesting play). I personally like sugar (although it might continue to drop a bit) and longer term I am bullish on rice. So I think Jim was right on the bull market. As for the next leg, I think it won't be left to the metals that will carry it, but the soft commodities. Just remember to only invest what you can loose, and consider practicing on the CBOE Virtual Trade Simulator . I am playing with it as we speak. Also consider options on futures, which only limits your liability to the upside from where you buy in at (the only problem is that with a sleepy commodity, there is not enough momentum to make the premium on the option worth while).

Fun Post :D .

Enjoy :D .

Now They are Pushing It In Kindergarten!

What are they thinking? To be honest, it was not them that got me riled up, but actually the local school system where I live. They are encouraging kids to think about college while they are in kindergarten! Now I understand thinking about what you want to do when you grow up is one thing. But trying to tell kids about college when they are barely in school!? The only thing that would be worse would be for it to be sponsored by the likes of Citi Group and JP Morgan (I know they are getting out, but they can still squeeze a dime out of it in the mean time). And it is kinda a pity, since most of them are competing against inexpensive Chinese and Indian students, which will push prices lower. This is normal in a free market, but the issue is that they are pushing the supply higher, and the demand for many programs is actually lower. To me, subsidized education (at any level) is just another corporate welfare program, since it cuts the cost for training employees. VIVA LA FREEDOM!

Mobile Cities.

http://sploid.gizmodo.com/this-awesome-roaming-city-can-work-and-it-actually-make-1457939772

Very Interesting.

Things to Think About for the PT.

                                   Perhaps Mr. McAffee should have diversified his life outside Belize?

The Italian Gold Panic

                                     
                                      

     I was exploring data on various countries, and came across the chart above. Currently, Italy has a 127% debt to GDP ratio. I imagine that within a few years not only will it replay its flirt with bankruptcy like it did before, but it will make Greece look like a drop in the bucket. But that is besides the point. The next chart is what made me interested.

Rank	Country/Organization	Gold (tonnes)	Gold's share of national forex reserves (%)
-	G6 (EU)	8,972.6	76%
1	United States	8,133.5	70%
2	Germany	3,390.6	66%
3	International Monetary Fund	2,814.0	N.A.
4	Italy	2,451.8	65%
5	France	2,435.4	65%
6	China	1,054.1	1%
7	Switzerland	1,040.1	8%
8	Russia	1,015.4[11]
9	Japan	765.2	2%
10	Netherlands	612.5	52%
11	India	557.7	7%
12	European Central Bank	502.1	27%
13	Turkey	487.3[12]	16.2%
14	Taiwan	423.6	4%
15	Portugal	382.5	84.0%
16	Venezuela	365.8	66.0%
17	Saudi Arabia	322.9	2%
18	United Kingdom	310.3	12%
19	Lebanon	286.8	22%
20	Spain	281.6	23%
21	Austria	280.0	48%
22	Belgium	227.4	33%
23	Philippines	192.7	9%
24	Algeria	173.6	3%
25	Thailand	152.4	3%
26	Kazakhstan	130.9	19%
27	Singapore	127.4	2%
28	Sweden	125.7	7%
29	South Africa	125.1	10%
30	Mexico	124.9	3%
31	Libya	116.6	4%
32	Bank for International Settlements	115.0	N.A.
33	Greece	112.0	76%
34	South Korea	104.4	1%
35	Romania	103.7	9%
36	Poland	102.9	4%
37	Australia	79.9	6%
38	Kuwait	79.0	9%
39	Indonesia	75.9	3%
40	Egypt	75.6	21%
41	Federative Republic of Brazil	67.0	1.0%
42	Kingdom of Denmark	66.5	3.5%
43	Islamic Republic of Pakistan	64.4	27.4%
44	Argentine Republic	61.7	7.2%
45	Republic of Belarus	49.4	24.5%
46	Republic of Finland	49.1	21.3%
47	Plurinational State of Bolivia	42.3	13.6%
48	Republic of Bulgaria	40.0	9.3%
49	West African Economic and Monetary Union	36.5	12.0%
50	Malaysia	36.4	1.2%
51	Ukraine	36.4	6.7%
52	Republic of Peru	34.7	2.3%
53	Slovakia	31.8	64.7%
54	Nepal	30.1	22.9%
55	Republic of Iraq	29.8	2.0%
56	Republic of Ecuador	26.3	28.1%
57	Syrian Arab Republic	25.8	6.5%
58	Kingdom of Morocco	22.0	5.7%
59	Islamic Republic of Afghanistan	21.9	13.8%
60	Federal Republic of Nigeria	21.4	2.0%
61	Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka	16.6	11.2%
62	Republic of Serbia	16.6	4.8%
63	Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan	14.2	5.5%
64	Republic of Cyprus	13.9	65.8%
65	People's Republic of Bangladesh	13.5	4.2%
66	Kingdom of Cambodia	12.4	11.1%
67	State of Qatar	12.4	1.4%
68	Czech Republic	11.0	1.1%
69	Republic of Colombia	10.4	1.2%
70	Lao People's Democratic Republic	8.9	34.4%
71	Republic of Ghana	8.7	7.1%
72	Republic of Paraguay	8.7	6.2%
73	Republic of Latvia	7.7	4.6%
74	Republic of the Union of Myanmar	7.3	4.4%
75	Republic of El Salvador	7.3	10.6%
76	Republic of Guatemala	6.9	4.3%
77	Republic of Macedonia	6.8	11.1%
78	Tunisian Republic	6.7	4.4%
79	Republic of Tajikistan	6.4	51.1%
80	Republic of Azerbaijan	6.0	2.0%
81	Ireland	6.0	16.6%
82	Republic of Lithuania	5.8	3.5%
83	Mongolia	5.8	7.4%
84	Kingdom of Bahrain	4.7	3.7%
85	Nation of Brunei, the Abode of Peace	4.0	4.9%
86	Republic of Mauritius	3.9	5.2%
87	Republic of Mozambique	3.7	6.6%
88	Kyrgyz Republic	3.3	7.1%
89	Canada	3.2	0.2%
90	Republic of Slovenia	3.2	18.5%
91	Aruba	3.1	18.5%
92	Hungary	3.1	0.3%
93	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.0	3.1%
94	Grand Duchy of Luxembourg	2.2	10.7%
95	Hong Kong Special Administrative Region	2.1	0.0%
96	Republic of Iceland	2.0	2.2%
97	Independent State of Papua New Guinea	2.0	2.3%
98	Republic of Trinidad and Tobago	1.9	0.9%
99	Republic of Albania	1.6	2.8%
100	Republic of Yemen	1.6	1.2%
	Sum

     As you can see, Italy has the 4th largest gold reserves in the world. Perhaps they would sell that gold during a financial panic in order to buy up assets, thus putting pressure on gold. Is it likely? No. But if it means inflating to save financial institutions and/or the government, selling gold seems like the sane option, since not only is the Euro not the worlds reserve currency, but it would wreck inflation not only on Italy, but all of Europe.